Geoeconomic Autopsy Stepwell Centre for Asian Futures

The 2026 Iran War

How 112 days of conflict, a closed Strait of Hormuz, and 22,500 stranded mariners rewrote global energy markets — and what it meant for India.

By Sahasrik Ragani Ahmedabad University · 28 Feb – 20 Jun 2026

$166.96

/bbl · Oman Crude Peak
All-time high — Mar 19, 2026

22,500

mariners stranded at peak
May 6, 2026 (US CENTCOM)

$20B

sold by RBI in single week
March 7–14 intervention

For roughly one hundred of the conflict’s one hundred and twelve days, the single most important artery in the global oil trade went dark. This is an accounting of what that cost — in barrels, in rupees, and in people.

On 2 March 2026, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to commercial traffic. Within days the Oman/Dubai marker — the benchmark that prices crude already moving east of the blockade — detached from every other grade in the world, printing an all-time high of $166.96 a barrel on 19 March. The Reserve Bank of India sold roughly $20 billion in a single week to defend the rupee. It was not enough.

Every $10 a barrel, sustained, widens India’s current-account deficit by about fifty basis points.
Morgan Stanley India · Oil Sensitivity Model

What follows is the record: the market data, the shipping data, and the macroeconomic data — each tied to a dated institutional source. No interpretation is offered where the numbers speak plainly.

Energy Markets

Crude Benchmarks & Hormuz Transit Flow

Crude Benchmark Divergence — Brent · WTI · Oman/DME (USD/bbl)

Oman/Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME) — the key Asian benchmark — diverged sharply from WTI as Hormuz closure created a physical scarcity premium for barrels already east of the blockade. Oman peaked at $166.96 on March 19 on a Chinese panic bid. WTI peaked at $96.84 on March 8.

Sources: EIA Daily Spot Price Series · Reuters · Bloomberg · Argus Media · EIA/Brent · Argus (Oman ATH)

Strait of Hormuz — Daily Tanker Transits (Feb 28 – Mar 24, 2026)

Pre-conflict baseline: ~94 ships/day (IMF PortWatch AIS data) · ~100/day (EIA/Lloyd's List). Following IRGC closure March 2, Clarksons Research confirmed average of just 4 transits/day through week ending March 23. Indian LPG carriers briefly permitted March 13 (S&P Global). Color: ■ Unrestricted ■ Permitted ■ Restricted ■ Near-zero

Sources: Vortexa · S&P Global · Windward Maritime AI · Argus Media (Mar 22) · Bloomberg (Mar 24) · IMF PortWatch · UKMTO · Clarksons Research (avg 4/day week to Mar 23)

India's Energy Exposure

Crude Import Routes & Global Cargo Flows

India Crude Imports — Source, Route and Commodity Type

Approximately 4.8–5.0 mb/d total net imports · ~56% of crude + ~80% of LPG transits Hormuz · Russia share fell from ~1.7 mb/d (2025) to ~1.0 mb/d amid US tariff pressure

Sources: Kpler · The Print · The Diplomat · PPAC (Ministry of Petroleum) · Morgan Stanley India (Mar 2026)

Global Cargo Flows — What Passes Through Hormuz and Where It Goes

Pre-conflict volumes. ~20–25% of global crude, 20% of global LNG, 8% of global LPG transits Hormuz. "BLOCKED Mar 1 – present" label reflects crisis-period status.

Sources: EIA World Oil Transit Chokepoints · Kpler · S&P Global · Vortexa · IEA (2025/early 2026) · Visual Capitalist

Phase 02 / Interactive Timeline

The Conflict Matrix

Drag the slider to see how every key metric evolved from Feb 28 to Jun 20. The map updates to show the operational status of the Strait.

Feb 28 · Day 0 HORMUZ: OPEN

Feb 28Mar 19 (Peak)Apr 7 (CF)Jun 20 (End)

$74.2

/bbl · Brent Crude

$73.8

/bbl · Oman/GME Crude

$70.1

/bbl · WTI Crude

$730.0B

India FX Reserves (USD)

vessels · Ships Stranded

stranded · Mariners

Pre-conflict baseline · Feb 28, 2026

Drag the slider above to explore how all metrics evolved across the 112-day conflict. The map updates to show operational status of the Strait of Hormuz and active strike locations.

Crude Benchmark Divergence — All Three Benchmarks

Mariners & Vessels Stranded — Cumulative Count

India Macroeconomic Exposure

Reserves, Rates & Fiscal Stress

India Foreign Exchange Reserves — RBI Intervention Window (USD Bn)

RBI sold $18–20B in single week (Mar 7–14) defending the rupee. Trough at $697B (May 16). Partial recovery post-MoU.

RBI Weekly Statistical Supplement (published every Friday) · Reuters (Mar 12)

USD/INR Exchange Rate — RBI Reference Rate (₹ per $1)

RBI reference rate published daily at 12:00 IST. Conflict-period peak: ₹96.844/$1 on May 20, 2026 (confirmed via CEIC/RBI Reference Rate Archive). Jun 22 close: ₹94.494; Jun 23: ₹94.706. Note: earlier figure of ₹93.33 (Mar 19) was not the peak — the rupee continued depreciating through May.

RBI Reference Rate · MUFG FX Research (Mar 12) · Goldman Sachs India

Current Account Deficit (CAD) — Oil Price Sensitivity (% of GDP)

Every $10/bbl sustained rise widens CAD by ~50 bps (Morgan Stanley Oil Sensitivity Model). Goldman Sachs revised FY 25/26 CAD to −1.2% on March 19. MUFG stress test at $120 oil gives −2.8%.

Goldman Sachs India (Mar 19) · Morgan Stanley India Oil Sensitivity Model · MUFG FX Research (Mar 12) · Ministry of Finance · Union Budget 2025–26

Lloyd's War Risk Premium — % of Vessel Value Per Voyage

Unit: AWRP (Additional War Risk Premium) as % of Hull & Machinery value per 7-day transit. Pre-conflict baseline: 0.10–0.15%. Confirmed peak: 2.5% in early March (insurance executives, Asia Pacific Maritime conference, Singapore, March 27 — S&P Global). For a $138M H&M VLCC this adds $10–14M per voyage. Red Sea precedent: 26+ months and still elevated (Drewry).

Lloyd's Joint War Committee · P&I Clubs · Drewry Shipping Consultants

Humanitarian Crisis — Mariners & Vessels Stranded in Persian Gulf

IMO confirmed ~20,000 mariners stranded April 21. General Dan Caine confirmed 22,500 on 1,550+ vessels May 6. DG Shipping India: 847 Indian nationals among those trapped.

IMO (Apr 21 official) · US CENTCOM / Gen. Caine (May 6) · Lloyd's List Intelligence · Kpler

Emerging Market Debt Vulnerability

Current Account Deficit Widening & EMBI Spread Shock

CAD Widening from $107 vs $75 Oil (% of GDP)

Stacked bars: pre-conflict Current Account Deficit (CAD) baseline + additional oil shock hit. Countries ranked by total exposure. Nigeria is a net oil exporter — partial exposure via refinery deficit.

IMF GFSR Oct 2025 · OECD Global Debt Report 2025 · Morgan Stanley EM Debt Monitor Q3 2025 · World Bank IDS 2024

JP Morgan EMBI Spreads — Pre-Conflict vs Post-Shock (basis points)

Sovereign debt spread widening reflects repricing of external financing risk. Pakistan and Sri Lanka — already at distressed levels — face potential debt restructuring. India's investment-grade rating provides meaningful buffer.

IMF GFSR · JP Morgan EMBI+ Index · S&P / Fitch sovereign ratings · World Bank Global Economic Prospects

India–Gulf Remittances

Sub-National Exposure & Long-Run Trend

Total remittances $118.7B (FY 23/24). Gulf-to-India flows fell ~68% during peak blockade. Kerala — where remittances exceed 36% of State Domestic Product — bore the heaviest subnational shock.

State-wise Share of India's Total Remittances — FY 23/24 (%)

Maharashtra and Kerala together account for ~40% of all remittances. Kerala's SDP-relative exposure (36.2%) is the highest in the country.

RBI 6th Round Remittances Survey (FY 23/24) · Kerala Migration Survey (Centre for Development Studies, Trivandrum, 2024) · MoSPI

India Remittances Trend — Total & GCC Share (USD Bn, FY 10/11 – FY 23/24)

Total remittances more than doubled from $53.9B to $118.7B over 13 years. GCC share rose from $24.8B to $40.2B — the most crisis-exposed corridor.

World Bank Migration & Remittances Data · RBI Annual Reports